Pandora's ( P ) user base is growing at a blistering speed. The total number of registered users increased from 22 million in 2008 to 82 million in 2010 and is likely to reach 130 million by the end of 2011 according to our forecasts. The expansion of the smartphone market is the main driver for this growth. Pandora is also expanding its presence in the automobile market, which is dominated by satellite radio leader SiriusXM ( SIRI ). And now it faces greater competition from Spotify which recently launched its music service in the U.S. via Facebook.
While we estimate Pandora's total registered users will increase from 130 million in 2011 to around 337 million by the end of our forecast period, Trefis members project an increase from to 377 million during the same period. The member estimates imply upside of almost 20% to the our estimate for Pandora's stock.
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